According to one of the leading theories of geopolitics in the nuclear era, the “theory of the nuclear revolution,” nuclear weapons are the ultimate instruments of deterrence, protecting those who possess them from invasion or other major attacks. The growing vulnerability of nuclear forces sheds light on an enduring theoretical puzzle of the nuclear age. The new era of counterforceĬhallenges the basis for confidence in contemporary deterrence stability, raises critical issues for national and international security policy, and sheds light on one of the enduring theoretical puzzles of the nuclear era: why international security competition has endured in the shadow of the nuclear revolution. In short, the task of securing nuclear arsenals against attack is far more difficult than it was in the past. ![]() Various methods, evidence, and models demonstrate the emergence of new possibilities for counterforce disarming strikes. Specifically, two key approaches that countries have relied on to ensure arsenal survivability since the dawn of the nuclear age-hardening and concealment-have been undercut by leaps in weapons accuracy and a revolution in remote sensing. Advances rooted in the computer revolution have made nuclear forces around the world considerably more vulnerable. ![]() Technological developments, however, are eroding this foundation of nuclear deterrence. For much of the nuclear age, “counterforce” disarming attacks-those aimed at eliminating an opponent's nuclear forces-were nearly impossible because of the ability of potential victims to hide and protect their weapons. ![]() Nuclear deterrence rests on the survivability of nuclear arsenals.
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